Dennis Nobelius: How future proofing brands are handling the forecasted circular polyester supply gap
In his bimonthly briefing, Syre CEO Dennis Nobelius shares the latest developments from inside the company. This time focusing on the forecasted supply-demand gap for circular polyester, and the three Launch Partners– Gap Inc., Houdini Sportswear and Target – that are moving early to secure future supply.
Why bottle-to-fiber textiles aren’t enough
Why should anyone bother to move to circular polyester when recycled polyester made from bottles is still good enough to tick the current sustainability boxes?
Well, we partnered with McKinsey and asked 450 apparel brands, 100 home interior brands, and the world’s 25 leading automotive brands. Together, we mapped their stated needs against upcoming legislation packages, and applied some probabilities on how we expect the market to react.
What we found? That some brands push back their timelines when they miss their goals, some accelerate, and some hold on firmly to science-based commitments.
But there is a bigger issue. The consumption of rPET derived from bottles is growing, although the bottle industry has a nearly perfect circular system in place. With bottle prices expected to rise, turning bottles into fibers is downcycling and just one more step before landfill or incineration. Hence, not a long-term solution. Looking at the alternative – the shared ambitions of the world’s 27 textile-to-textile manufacturers coming to the stage – and matching the capability against the projected demand from the 600 brands mentioned above, we see a clear supply-demand gap. It’s expected to be 10-12million metric tons by 2030, according to the 2024 McKinsey study commissioned by Syre.
The solution? More circular polyester (cPET) building capacity. Fast. The world already has enough polyester in circulation to meet the textile industry’s needs, so it’s time to stop producing it from virgin oil. At the same time, cPET circular polyester will be at scarce supply meaning that the prices will go up in the future.
Ok all good, but then the next question appears. Do brands see what we see?
Leading the shift: Gap Inc., Houdini Sportswear and Target
Good news – many of them do. I’ m proud to introduce our Launch Partners: Gap Inc. Houdini Sportswear and Target. These three companies see the scarcity, the demand, and the need to secure a good business by locking in an attractive price and volume now. It’s about speed and scale. Thanks for the trust. And for pioneering!
So, what does it mean to be a launch partner? It’s about commercial and industrial cooperation, opening supply chains, working as regional as possible, and using a good steady supply of circular materials all the way to the end consumer – and back.
We first met with our three launch partners when Syre was still in stealth mode. Over the past year, we’ve worked together as true partners – reviewing LCAs, running workshops at our respective headquarters, understanding the supply chain, the commercial offer, the benefits of being early, and touring our existing facilities in North Carolina.
Now we are here: mutual understanding and respect ready to announce our journey ahead shifting into circular business mode. And each of these three partners bring something unique, representing different segments and sizes.
I had the chance to visit Gap Inc. and Daniel Fibiger and Sally Gilligan a few months ago at their impressive HQ in San Francisco, showcasing their strong, diverse American style offering and clear sustainability efforts. At Target, I had the pleasure of joining a full day workshop very early on in our company journey – a warm and friendly session led by Stephanie Grotta at their Minneapolis HQ. And Houdini Sportswear– a Swedish originated outdoor company with circularity at its core, long led by co-founder Eva Karlsson – was the first brand we connected with as a company. We’re both headquartered in Stockholm, Sweden, and share the same values, making the partnership a natural transition from my previous position at Polestar where we also cooperated.
These three partners and teams now continue to lead by securing capacity for circular polyester and accelerating The Great Textile Shift. True circularity. Thanks everyone involved, and we just got started!
Up next: Hyperscale and global expansion
So, where is Syre today? And where are we heading?
Zooming out slightly, we are building a platform and an ecosystem. With heavy assets. Requiring big investments. To make an impact. Our platform and ecosystem bring together feedstock providers, sorting infrastructure, startups working with data and quality assurance, and –crucially – brands. All of it designed to make true textile circularity possible at industrial scale.
Our role is to help brands meet their sustainability goals by making circular materials accessible and reliable. Take H&M Group, for example – our co-founder and first partner. Their early pull as a brand, and the agreement we landed together – still the largest of its kind – helped unlock the investment we needed to scale. A deal that enabled investment in hyperscale infrastructure, which is now connecting downstream demand with upstream supply. Creating a circular, traceable solution of polyester material.
And last month, we took yet another major step forward: proudly announcing that Syre has been granted an Investment Registration Certificate (IRC) by Binh Dinh Province, Vietnam, for our first gigascale textile-to-textile recycling plant.
The certificate was officially handed over to our founder and Chair Susanna Campbell during a ceremony in Stockholm – witnessed by Vietnam’s Prime Minister, H.E. Pham Minh Chinh, and ministers from both the Vietnamese and Swedish governments. Ahead of the event, we had the great pleasure of hosting Mr. Ho Quoc Dung, Binh Dinh’s Secretariat, at our Stockholm office for a collaborative discussion on our shared ambition: to lead the way toward a truly circular textile industry.
This milestone reflects the unwavering support of the Binh Dinh authorities, the dedication of our supply chain partners, and the relentless energy of the Syre team – our passionate scalemakers. The hard work continues.
We are proud of the presence in the market we have gained. Across the textile industry, there’s growing recognition that the shift from fast to circular is not only necessary – it’s already underway. And if we want real impact, we need scale.
Now is the time to act to establish global, regional, green, transparent, and true circular polyester partners. We expect the time has come to shift from smaller capsule collections showcasing innovative new materials to instead shift focus to impact at its core – by going circular in big volumes. Futureproofing the fashion, automotive, and home interior businesses. Join us!